January 15, 2015: The Floor Removal
At 8:30 am Zurich time on January 15, 2015, the Swiss National Bank scrapped its three-year-old cap of 1.20 per euro and the franc exploded. EUR/CHF collapsed from 1.20 toward 0.86 in minutes before recovering to close near 1.04, a swing of roughly 30 percent at the extreme. USD/CHF fell from about 1.02 toward 0.79 in the same session.
Broker casualties followed. Alpari UK entered insolvency, and retail clients across the industry logged negative balances because no liquidity existed anywhere near quoted prices for several minutes. The episode remains the strongest argument for stops and for sizing that assumes gaps rather than orderly fills.
Negative Rates and the Haven Bid
Swiss authorities built the floor because eurozone crisis flows had pushed the franc punishingly high in 2011. Defending the economy meant printing francs without limit and charging banks for deposits, eventually minus 0.75 percent from January 2015. That regime lasted until September 2022, when policymakers returned to zero as inflation finally arrived.
Safe haven status still shapes behavior. Geopolitical stress, banking scares, and equity drawdowns send flows into CHF regardless of yield, which is why EUR/CHF doubles as a fear gauge. When stocks slide hard, USD/CHF often falls even while the dollar strengthens elsewhere, because both legs bid at once.
SNB Policy Now
The tightening cycle peaked at 1.75 percent, and the bank then moved early: cuts in March, June, September, and December 2024 left the policy rate at 0.50 percent, trimmed further to 0.25 percent in March 2025 with inflation near zero. Chairman Martin Schlegel repeats that intervention in foreign exchange remains an available tool, and the bank confirmed franc-selling operations during the first quarter of 2025. Forward markets now price the next move lower as more likely than higher, keeping a lid on franc recovery attempts.
Currency traders should treat the SNB as an active participant rather than a bystander. With rates near zero and prices subdued, managing franc strength falls largely to the FX desk, which historically shows up as unexplained chunky flows during Tokyo or early European hours.
Sight deposits published each Monday remain the cleanest intervention fingerprint, since balances rise when the central bank buys foreign currency. Traders monitoring that series catch intervention weeks before officials confirm them.
How USD/CHF Trades Day to Day
Typical daily range runs 50 to 70 pips, among the tightest in the majors, with Swiss inflation mid-morning and quarterly SNB decisions at 8:30 am Zurich time as the scheduled catalysts. Much of the movement mirrors EUR/USD inverted because both pairs share the dollar leg; franc-specific shocks reveal themselves when that mirror breaks.
ChaiyaFX quotes on the pair tighten through the London morning and widen at the New York close each day. Because SNB operations arrive unannounced, resting stops below obvious swing lows get harvested regularly, a pattern familiar to anyone who has held franc positions through a risk event.
Trading costs deserve mention: rollover on franc shorts has flipped sign across policy eras, and swap charges can exceed the expected move on tight-range days, a quiet drag on any strategy holding positions for weeks.
Positioning for Franc Risk
Hedgers and speculators alike should map the 2015 precedent onto the current setup. Any short-franc trade against a low-yield backdrop carries crash risk visible in options markets as elevated downside pricing. Size for a 500-pip adverse gap, keep stops away from round numbers where they cluster, and reduce exposure ahead of SNB dates on the ChaiyaFX economic calendar.
Actionable Checklist
Watch EUR/CHF as the fear gauge, track sight deposits weekly for intervention fingerprints, and keep franc shorts smaller than other majors. Flatten or hedge before every SNB quarter and during geopolitical flare-ups. Journal each SNB decision alongside the sight deposit change for two quarters and the rhythm becomes second nature. The franc pays nothing to hold, but it repays respect whenever stress hits.